Bad weekend at CA auctions??

Any details on what he was trying to get for them? 5R-108 sold for $748K.

 

Steven,
What did the 1965 go for and what was it's condition ? All others will follow it's course.
Tout

 

http://www.goodingco.com/auctions/catalogues/pebble06/lot80.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060823/nyw139.html?.v=56

 

If I were selling one of my Shelby's it would not be at Pebble Beach. The crowds that attend that auction and the crowds that go to Barret Jackson and Mecum are WAY different. It's like bringing a 6 pack to a bake sale.

With the recent craze on the 2007 Shelby's it is only going to bring more people into the hobby and curiosity about the original Shelby's. I am willing to bet you are going to have some people buy the 2007, learn about the history and then go for the original.

Time will tell, but long term they will be fine. Last I checked there were not any more 65,66, 67,68,69, or 1970 Shelby's rolling off the assembly line however there were more people getting into collecting muscle cars.

 

While I agree that the economic signs are in place for the market to soften somewhat, I can't get on board that they are plummeting as you claim. First as far as the check Ebay prices claim, I would never use Ebay (or most auctions) as a barometer for car values.
Tim
ps: for the record T Lea is my name, nothing to hide behind here

 

Personally, I appreciate Mr. Becker's comments on the market. I like to hear what different people have to say. While I've never met Stephen in person, I did take some time to call him last month and found him very easy to talk to and enjoyed it very much.

Stephen does have some history on his side in his arguments. I remember when the Boss 429 (along with many other muscle cars) fell hard back in the 90's after a big run up. It was like the cars lost half of their values in a matter of a few weeks. The Shelbys did not take such a beating during that time because they were not as widely traded. Not many Shelby owners would sell them back then so there weren't as many speculators running up the values. On the whole the cars remained in the hands of enthusiasts. Fast forward a few years and six figure values have changed that dynamic. While it may not apply to members of this forum, you just have to watch the auctions to see a lot of people buying shelbys that have no clue what they are doing or buying.

All of the money flowing into hobby has not made it more enjoyable for me over the last few years. I enjoyed my car a whole lot more when it was a $30ish car versus a $100+ car. (although my 12 year old and I still cruise Main Street just to bring a diffent kind of noise for the cops to frown on versus the ricer's thumping stereos.) Hang in there Stephen. I appreciate what you bring here.

Mark in TN

 

Stephen,

Correct me if my information is wrong but it's my understanding a CSX 2000 series Cobra that was sold and driven as a street car for three years then made into a private racer doing primarily autocross activity sold for 1.2 million all in and it was real money and a real buyer.

Most of those Shelby Mustangs were not premium cars with stories behind them brought there by a dealer and his financial backer who actually owned them and was bidding on his own cars. Every insider and dealer knew that the primary auction house with these Mustangs was allowing buyers to buy back their own cars at no buy back fee at an alleged no reserve auction and this scared the knowledgeable buyers away do to the smoke and mirrors effect of this practice. Furthermore other owners were having their friends bid up the cars to nose bleed levels and this was all quite obvious and people were leaving the auction in droves.

I have had a cash real money offer this week on my carryover car at 225K and one on my drag car at close to 500K so I am not sure the market is as bad as you allude to. Unfortunately both cars are not for sale.

I know of three recent private sales of average 65 GT 350s in the high 200s a Boss 9 for over 450K and a Boss 302 for 150K. Recent means in the last three weeks.

Some of the ebay cars you may be referring to such as the grabber green Boss 9 the seller has no posted phone number and won't respond to emails. Another 66 GT 350 #2372 the same seller refuses to post the Shelby VIN tag last time I looked and wouldn't send me a picture of it. Furthermore he won't respond as to whether the car has original sheetmetal or drivetrain and has never verified that his Ford numbers are correct for the car with SAAC but states that a local Shelby guy name unknown checked it out and it is legit?

I think what you are seeing now is that the buyers for the premium cars are now well educated or hire experts like yourself and demand no story premium cars. From my observation what is flooding the market right now are crappy cars with the owners trying to get big bucks and cash in on the trend on junk.

The other trend is most every used car dealer in the country is now trying to cash in on this Shelby muscle car trend and being new to the hobby they are buying BS cars and bringing them to market as the real deal and not finding any buyers due to a generally educated consumer realizing they are crap.

Premium no story documented cars are still bringing top dollar in private sales and the market is quite strong for such cars. But you are quite correct the market is soft and correcting for the lessor quality cars IMHO.

LQ

 

I think we are in agreement and I for one hope the market continues to correct because I won't buy a 68 KR CV or 69 GT 500 CV unless it eventually does. I think what will be interesting is to see if the premium cars start to fall back in value during this period. I would expect the Chevrolets with their inherent difficulty in documentation to start the slide then Mopars. Both marques have inherent documentation problems and have had amazing runs. But Pontiac's, Shelby's and Fords due to their fantastic ability to document the cars I think will be pretty steady. Some Pontiac's and most Fords can still in some respects be considered decent value's even in todays market IMHO.

The auction hosues are now their own worst enemy and their greed and shady business practices are not going unnoticed. The rumor mill is thick with stories of antitrust lawsuits. One big public blow up could bring the whole market crashing down. Good reading is the book about art fraud at the high end auctions houses in NY like Sotheby's where the investigations lead to arrest and prison time. The auto auction houses are doing the same thing right now.

From my observations most industries with the exception of oil are in a pull back and despite what the Fed thinks I think we are heading into a severe recession. Just my two cents.

 

I agree with a lot of what 5S301 has to say. I was at Monterey for that weekend but only for the races.

If you look back to the early 90's when real estated cooled off rather dramatically you'll notice the collector car market did the same. I believe this his whats happening right now. There is soooooooo much negative news on real estate right now that the average buyer is not stepping up to the plate....he's waiting in the wings to see how this all sorts out. Out here in Calif the market has corrected already about 10% give or take and looks to be headed lower regardless of what the agents tell you. Inventory supply is now running about 7 months and hasn't been this high in a very long time.

So I my view it was real estate dollars that has chased these cars to the high dollar figures we have seen the last few years. I know that friends of mine have taken out equity dollars to buy the cars they wanted. It wasn't dollars that they had saved from working. Now that values have started to come down the raping of equity dollars will come to a halt and so will the buying spree that's gone on for the last 6 to 7 years. Its a dynamic market place...not a static one. Your car is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Everyone thinks they can get auction dollars and that is just not true. Keep in mind some of the best cars never come on the market...they trade hands privately.

I don't really have any confidence in the auction process anyways. With all I have heard about the repurchasing of cars by sellers that were not happy with the bid it leaves me thinking I really don't know whats real and not. A true auction is a good thing....but I don't have confidence in these car auctions. With BJ and their "no reserve" status now in Scottsdale I don't know if these cars are really being bought buy new owners or not. Reggie Jackson is a good case....I don't think any of his cars are "no reserve" cars....hes just loves to stirr up the pot.

I view Ebay as an advertising medium only. Cars do actually sell on there but most of the good ones get exposure on there and the buyer's and seller's get together later on. If one views it as a "real" auction then they are being duped. For parts and the like it normally works ok. But even that is changing due to the large number of Ebay stores that have cropped up in the last couple of years. Seems now everyone is trying to get "rich" being an Ebayer...and I see that as getting worse as the population ages and there are more retirees out there Ebaying.

Well thats it...just contributing my 2 cents on this subject. Lots of good info on here. I appreciate the forum.

 

If we, as a forum, can curtail the apparent knife throwing, perhaps we can get back to having an informative exchange of ideas as to the direction the values of our Shelbys might be taking.

First, I do not hold much stock in auction results. Too many unknowns. The
smoke and mirror hype, induced mass hysteria to get people to spend stupid
money. And the behind scenes dealings. However, they do influence values to a degree.

Secondly, I think the real market is in the private sector. Shelbys change hands infrequently. Usually by word of mouth within SAAC or thru their
news letter. These are usually the better cars. The rust buckets and ones
with questionable history show up on e-bay. And thats a snake pit.

I would not be suprised to see a leveling off of prices over the next number of months; but not necessarally a lowering of values on Shelbys but perhaps
other Ford performance cars. We have been thru this process a number of
times since the 80's.

Several other factors to think about that relates to values, is the arbitrary
pecking order of desireability for each year Shelby. Top gun is usually is the
'65, followed by the '66 changeover cars. Then, just about any order you wish to insert the others. Thats when discussions get interesting. Depending
on which year you own and if it's a small block/big block, everyone has an idea where their Shelby should be.

I think the market for Shelbys in general will remain relatively strong and you will find the top prices paid for the best cars. Absolutely mint, lo-milage
originals and newly restored ones to benchmark levels of quality. They will
bring the so called "big bucks". Always have, always will. The actual selling
price is determined when the car is sold; and generally, we are not usually privey to that transaction.
regards,
shlby66

 

I have never met Stephen either and have not bought or sold a car through him , but have talked to him a few times in the past few years over the phone and have found him to be straightforward, forthright and informative. I do believe after talking to him and watching him buy and sell Shelby's continuously since 1977 he is an expert when it comes to the Shelby market. I also believe several courts have recognized him as an expert and admitted his expert testimony into evidence. Whether or not one disagree's with his expert opinion is up to that indivdual. I think he contends that the Shelby markey is over heated and it is difficult to argue with that opionion.

I think what stephen is trying point out is that although a couple of high dollar Shelby's sold in CA the 2000 series Cobra for 1.2 million and # 108 the R model 65 GT 350 I think for 750K? The auctions were a disaster for the Shelby market. Stephen thinks they were a disaster because the market is trending sharply downward due to economic concerns and I think they were a disaster because the auction practices have sent terrible shockwaves through the muscle car community as a whole due to the questionable activity conducted in full and public view. Several muscle car web sights of all different marque's are discussing the unusual activities observed at the recent auctions. Several reputable magazines such as Sports Car Market Magazine also discussed a few questionable transactions at last January's BJ auction.

For example their is a GT 350 on ebay right now that "allegedly" sold in CA at one of the no reserve auctions for 185K. The buyer a dealer down south signed the purchase ticket in full view of everyone in attendence. However the "alleged" seller of the car at the auction another dealer is selling the car on ebay right now. Both dealers have partnered many cars in the past and routinely buy and sell Shelby's between each other. Did the car actually sell and change ownership and back again at the auction or was it all smoke and mirrors with one dealer bidding anothers car up for him due to a lack of real bidders? Or were the cars brought to CA for the sole purpose of having them run up at an auction to inflate the market as a whole with the possibility of catching a fish? These types of issues are what has sent shock waves through the hobby and Stephen is right in pointing things like this out so we all can benefit and be knowledgable.

Perhaps it's all an innocent mistake and one dealer didn't like the car even though all sales are final and didn't buy the car and another dealer the seller is now trying to sell the car again. But this car did sell and the buyer did sign the ticket in CA how is it then it is for sale again? If there is something wrong with the car shouldn't that be disclosed on ebay?

This auction nonsense is why I think the Shelby market seems to be down IMHO as opposed to a lack of interest on the part of real buyers for real cars due to economic concerns as Stephen might argue? Who is right? No one can say for sure unless they have the unique ability to predict the future. But I know several Shelby collectors in attendence in CA who were appalled at what they were watching and didn't bid because of a lack of trust as to actual bidders and in the auctions themselves.

 

Stephen-- Keep your check book closed. This is the third time that you have proclaimed that the sky is falling that I know of. The sky is still up there. About the green Boss 429 on eBay, you have to know about the car to make any kind of conclusions. Everybody with any brains knows that the summer is the soft time of the year.
Besides, what auctions and cars are you talking about? Anybody can go to the respective sites and check the results. I just checked one of the last Russo and Steele auctions at Monterey.
Here is the results of the first page I checked. A few Shelby's and a 70 Boss 429. Prices don't look that shabby to me.

Russo and Steele

PS--- Tell me where the barn find 67 GT 500 is for $70,000.
Frank Bowers --My real name

 

Hey Stephen,

Henry Bone here. I think the softness in the market started at Mecum this spring, as half the mopars went home to the same home. At the same time, I know of 2 71 Hemi cars that have traded hands recently for large $$$s. I was just wondering at what prices are buy points for these Shelby's? It seems everything is on the "ask" side and very few are on the "bid" side because the inventory(cars) has moved from individuals to dealers. And the dealers typically are not the enthusiasts and therefore can not hold for a long time.

And we have the seasonal thing that Frank pointed out. It is my opinion, that this is the time of year to buy.

 

My two cents on Monterey. People were expecting top of the market prices and if they didn't get them they took their car home. A 66 GT350 that was a very nice car had several people waiting to bid good money on it did not sell because the seller got cold feet and drove off with his car about 20 minutes before it was supposed to go across the block. Another Shelby , I can't remember which had real money on it at about 275K by a dealer that is a friend. He quit at 275 because there was no more he could pay and still sell it later for a fair return. I didn't see the maket dropping at all, just coming to it's senses. People were getting used to and expecting to see a 25% profit by flipping a car but that is no longer the case. Good money was still being offered for good cars. I am much more comfortable with the market now than when the annual price doubling was going on.

 

One thing is and will always be true, no one can predict the future. If we could we would all be rich (by investing in market not cars). While there are trends and indicators, in every economic field, that "experts" use they are not reality until they happen. The smart man will take precautions, not panic. A great example is interest rates. Traditionally they cycle every 6-8 years but we've been seeing low rates for better than 15 years now and although they are creeping up there is no whopping change, although there could be tomorrow. I have been in the construction business for 30 years which like the musclecars follows the economy very carefully. Am I an expert? I would say I am as good as anyone at seeing trends and warning signs but I've been wrong as many times as right when forecasting the future.
I have no problem with Stephen, or anyone, sharing there opinion but I would caution to heed the old saying "where your treasure is your heart will be also".
Whenever you challenge the value of something valuable to someone you will ruffle feathers. While I agree with what other poster said about enjoying his car a lot more when it was worth 30K rather than 150K inside we all like to think our cars are worth a small fortune.
Tim

 

I for one would not mind a softening of the market on these cars, to the hobbiest the run up has two sides to the coin. Yes, we may have made some money, if we sold, but if we use the car as it was intended it is only a paper increase and to purchase another car usally was out of reach. I for one would like to see realistic prices , not investers driving the market.I for one didn't buy my car 28 years ago for an investment and still do not see it as one, for it will be passed along in the family, to be used as it is today.
Tout